Nations at Impasse Over South China Sea, Group Warns
By JANE PERLEZ
Multimedia
Territorial Claims in South China Sea
BEIJING — The disputes between China
and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South
China Sea have become so intense, the prospect of open conflict is
becoming more likely, an authoritative new report says.
The disputes, enmeshed in the competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to the report, by the International Crisis Group, a research organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions.
“All of the trends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of
resolution are diminishing,” said the report, titled “Stirring Up the
South China Sea: Regional Responses.”
The pessimistic conclusion came a day after China stepped up its political and military control of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which both Vietnam and the Philippines
claim, and the Macclesfield Bank, claimed by the Philippines. The
islands are known in Chinese as Xisha, Nansha and Zhongsha.
On Monday, the Philippine president, Benigno S. Aquino III,
announced plans to buy aircraft, including attack helicopters, that
could be used in territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China and
the Philippines have competing claims there over the Scarborough Shoal
and potentially energy-rich underwater ground around Reed Bank, among
other areas.
In a speech before a joint session of the Philippine Congress, Mr.
Aquino adopted an aggressive stance against an unspecified threat. “If
someone enters your yard and told you he owns it, will you allow that?”
he said. “It’s not right to give away what is rightfully ours.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on Tuesday, saying that the
Philippine president had no legal standing to rely on the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea as the basis for his claim on Huangyan Island, the Chinese name for the Scarborough Shoal.
The analysis by the International Crisis Group apportions blame to both
China and its neighbors for the ratcheting up of incidents and tensions
in the sea, one of the most traveled bodies of water in the world and a
vital pathway for the United States and its allies. The group’s Beijing
office has spent two years studying the South China Sea, interviewing
decision makers in China and in the claimant countries.
In April, the group released a report
focused on the military and civilian agencies that play a role in
China’s actions in the South China Sea, ranging from the People’s
Liberation Army to a fisheries bureau.
The vagueness of China’s claims to islands and energy resources in the
sea has rattled other claimants, the new report said. China bases some
of its claims in the sea on discoveries by ancient Chinese navigators.
More specifically, China lays claim to everything within what is called a
nine-dash map drawn shortly after World War II. By some estimates, the nine dashes mark off 80 percent of the South China Sea.
But China’s assertive approach has been matched by Vietnam and the
Philippines, which are forcefully defending their claims and enlisting
outside allies, the report said.
“South China Sea claimants are all anxious to pursue oil and gas
exploration in the portions of the sea that they claim, and are
concerned with protecting their claimed fishing grounds as coastal
waters become depleted,” it said. The fact that the waters are mostly
patrolled by civilian vessels run by national governments was of little
comfort.
“In spite of being more lightly armed and less threatening than navy
ships, civilian law enforcement vessels are easier to deploy, operate
under looser chains of command and engage more readily in skirmishes,”
the report said.
In an example of civilian vessels’ plying the South China Sea with
possibly serious consequences, the Philippine Foreign Ministry said on
Tuesday that it objected to a fleet of 29 fishing vessels, a cargo
vessel and three other ships, protected by a Chinese Navy vessel near
Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef, two areas of the South China Sea that
the Philippines claims.
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